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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd