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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still