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Within the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.