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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.